Global Macro Dashboard

  Global Macro Snapshot — 2026-08-10
  
    🇺🇸 Yield Spread 10y–2y
        +0.44%
🇺🇸 Yield Spread 10y–3m
        +0.79%
🇺🇸 Inversion Signal🟢 NO
        (0 months)
🇺🇸 Recession Probability
        20.1%
🇺🇸 Inflation RegimeNormal
        (z=0.48)
🌍 Global Growth Pulse3.1%
🇺🇸 Risk Score
        +0.39 (Risk-On)

  
      FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
  
    📊 HY Credit Spread
        
        3 bps
📉 Real 10y Rate
        
        +0.98%
🏦 Fed Funds Rate
        3.63%
👷 Unemployment Rate
        
        4.1%
💰 M2 YoY Growth
        
        +5.5%
📈 CPI YoY
        
        3.5%

Positive Caution Negative

Major Economies

Country	GDP % Actual	GDP % Forecast	CPI %	Unemp %	Curr Acct % GDP	Govt Debt % GDP	Policy Rate %	Stock YTD %
United States	+2.3^†	+2.3^†	3.2^†	4.4^†	-3.7^†	126^†	3.63	+13.1
China	+5.0^†	+4.4^†	1.2^†	5.1^†	+3.5^†	107^†	2.90^†	-1.4
Germany	+0.8^†	+0.8^†	2.7^†	3.9^†	+3.9^†	65^†	2.25	+7.3
Japan	+0.7^†	+0.7^†	2.2^†	2.5^†	+3.8^†	204^†	0.84^†	+29.2
United Kingdom	+0.8^†	+0.8^†	3.2^†	5.6^†	-3.4^†	104^†	0.25^†	+9.4
France	+0.9^†	+0.9^†	1.8^†	7.9^†	-0.3^†	118^†	2.25	+6.3
India	+7.6^†	+6.5^†	4.7^†	4.9^†	-2.0^†	83^†	5.50^†	-7.7
Brazil	+2.3^†	+1.9^†	4.0^†	6.8^†	-2.7^†	96^†	14.39^†	+7.5
Canada	+1.5^†	+1.5^†	2.5^†	6.5^†	-0.2^†	111^†	2.27^†	+14.1
Australia	+2.0^†	+2.0^†	4.0^†	4.2^†	-2.3^†	51^†	4.35^†	+5.8
South Korea	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.54^†	+46.2
Italy	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.25	+18.3

Emerging Markets

Country	GDP % Actual	GDP % Forecast	CPI %	Unemp %	Curr Acct % GDP	Govt Debt % GDP	Policy Rate %	Stock YTD %
Mexico	+0.6^†	+1.6	3.9^†	2.7^†	-0.4	63	N/A	N/A
Indonesia	+5.1^†	+5.0	3.0^†	4.8^†	-1.1	42	N/A	N/A
Turkey	+3.6^†	+3.4	28.6^†	8.3^†	-2.8	26	N/A	N/A
South Africa	+1.1^†	+1.0	3.9^†	32.5^†	-0.9	79	N/A	N/A
Poland	+3.6^†	+3.3	3.3^†	3.4^†	-1.1	66	N/A	N/A
Thailand	+2.4^†	+1.5	0.9^†	1.0^†	+0.7	67	N/A	N/A
Saudi Arabia	+4.5^†	+3.1	2.3^†	3.5^†	-1.6	32	N/A	N/A
Taiwan	+8.7^†	+5.2	1.5^†	3.4^†	+18.1	28	N/A	N/A

Developing & Frontier

Country	GDP % Actual	GDP % Forecast	CPI %	Unemp %	Curr Acct % GDP	Govt Debt % GDP	Policy Rate %	Stock YTD %
Nigeria	+4.0^†	+4.1	16.0^†	22.6^†	+5.8	32	N/A	N/A
Vietnam	+8.0^†	+7.1	4.9^†	2.1^†	+5.3	30	N/A	N/A
Bangladesh	+3.5^†	+4.7	9.2^†	N/A	-0.6	42	N/A	N/A
Kenya	+4.9^†	+4.5	5.9^†	N/A	-4.1	72	N/A	N/A
Egypt	+4.4^†	+4.2	13.2^†	7.4^†	-4.2	87	N/A	N/A
Pakistan	+3.1^†	+3.6	7.2^†	6.9^†	-0.4	70	N/A	N/A

^† = data older than this basket's freshness window · hover any figure for its as-of date · N/A = not reported. Freshness windows widen for less-timely baskets (Emerging Markets and Developing report on a longer lag).

🇺🇸 Yield Spread 10y–2y	+0.44%
🇺🇸 Yield Spread 10y–3m	+0.79%
🇺🇸 Inversion Signal	🟢 NO (0 months)
🇺🇸 Recession Probability	20.1%
🇺🇸 Inflation Regime	Normal (z=0.48)
🌍 Global Growth Pulse	3.1%
🇺🇸 Risk Score	+0.39 (Risk-On)

📊 HY Credit Spread	3 bps
📉 Real 10y Rate	+0.98%
🏦 Fed Funds Rate	3.63%
👷 Unemployment Rate	4.1%
💰 M2 YoY Growth	+5.5%
📈 CPI YoY	3.5%