Global Macro Dashboard

  Global Macro Snapshot — 2026-10-05
  
    🇺🇸 Yield Spread 10y–2y
        +0.46%
🇺🇸 Yield Spread 10y–3m
        +1.07%
🇺🇸 Inversion Signal🟢 NO
        (0 months)
🇺🇸 Recession Probability
        18.2%
🇺🇸 Inflation RegimeNormal
        (z=0.42)
🌍 Global Growth Pulse3.1%
🇺🇸 Risk Score
        -0.06 (Risk-Off)

  
      FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
  
    📊 HY Credit Spread
        
        3 bps
📉 Real 10y Rate
        
        +1.40%
🏦 Fed Funds Rate
        3.75%
👷 Unemployment Rate
        
        4.2%
💰 M2 YoY Growth
        
        +5.7%
📈 CPI YoY
        
        3.4%

      MARKET VALUATION
    🐘 Buffett Indicator (Corp Equities / GDP)
        
        255%
         100th pctile · as of 2026-04-01
📐 Shiller CAPE (PE10)
        
        41.4
         99th pctile · as of 2026-10-02

    Long-run US equity valuation. Percentiles are vs each metric's own history
    (CAPE since 1871, Buffett since 1951). Higher = richer valuations, which
    historically preceded lower long-run returns — not a market-timing signal. The Buffett Indicator is quarterly (Fed Z.1) and quarter-lagged; CAPE is monthly.

Positive Caution Negative

Major Economies

Country	GDP % Actual	GDP % Forecast	CPI %	Unemp %	Curr Acct % GDP	Govt Debt % GDP	Policy Rate %	Stock YTD %	Mkt Cap % GDP
United States	+2.3^†	+2.3^†	3.2^†	4.4^†	-3.7^†	126^†	3.75	+12.6	224
China	+5.0^†	+4.4^†	1.2^†	5.1^†	+3.5^†	107^†	2.90^†	-4.5	80
Germany	+0.8^†	+0.8^†	2.7^†	3.9^†	+3.9^†	65^†	2.50	+2.8	57
Japan	+0.7^†	+0.7^†	2.2^†	2.5^†	+3.8^†	204^†	0.98^†	+34.9	172
United Kingdom	+0.8^†	+0.8^†	3.2^†	5.6^†	-3.4^†	104^†	0.25^†	+5.1	97^†
France	+0.9^†	+0.9^†	1.8^†	7.9^†	-0.3^†	118^†	2.50	-3.6	85^†
India	+7.6^†	+6.5^†	4.7^†	4.9^†	-2.0^†	83^†	5.50^†	-15.3	267
Brazil	+2.3^†	+1.9^†	4.0^†	6.8^†	-2.7^†	96^†	14.06^†	+19.7	38
Canada	+1.5^†	+1.5^†	2.5^†	6.5^†	-0.2^†	111^†	2.25^†	+11.3	199
Australia	+2.0^†	+2.0^†	4.0^†	4.2^†	-2.3^†	51^†	4.35^†	-0.5	114
South Korea	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.81^†	+62.5	147
Italy	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.50	+11.3	27^†

Emerging Markets

Country	GDP % Actual	GDP % Forecast	CPI %	Unemp %	Curr Acct % GDP	Govt Debt % GDP	Policy Rate %	Stock YTD %	Mkt Cap % GDP
Mexico	+0.6^†	+1.6^†	3.9^†	2.7^†	-0.4^†	63^†	N/A	N/A	31
Indonesia	+5.1^†	+5.0^†	3.0^†	4.8^†	-1.1^†	42^†	N/A	N/A	66
Turkey	+3.6^†	+3.4^†	28.6^†	8.3^†	-2.8^†	26^†	N/A	N/A	25
South Africa	+1.1^†	+1.0^†	3.9^†	32.5^†	-0.9^†	79^†	N/A	N/A	327
Poland	+3.6^†	+3.3^†	3.3^†	3.4^†	-1.1^†	66^†	N/A	N/A	31
Thailand	+2.4^†	+1.5^†	0.9^†	1.0^†	+0.7^†	67^†	N/A	N/A	89
Saudi Arabia	+4.5^†	+3.1^†	2.3^†	3.5^†	-1.6^†	32^†	N/A	N/A	185
Taiwan	+8.7^†	+5.2^†	1.5^†	3.4^†	+18.1^†	28^†	N/A	N/A	N/A

Developing & Frontier

Country	GDP % Actual	GDP % Forecast	CPI %	Unemp %	Curr Acct % GDP	Govt Debt % GDP	Policy Rate %	Stock YTD %	Mkt Cap % GDP
Nigeria	+4.0^†	+4.1	16.0^†	22.6^†	+5.8	32	N/A	N/A	30
Vietnam	+8.0^†	+7.1	4.9^†	2.1^†	+5.3	30	N/A	N/A	61
Bangladesh	+3.5^†	+4.7	9.2^†	N/A	-0.6	42	N/A	N/A	6
Kenya	+4.9^†	+4.5	5.9^†	N/A	-4.1	72	N/A	N/A	17
Egypt	+4.4^†	+4.2	13.2^†	7.4^†	-4.2	87	N/A	N/A	17
Pakistan	+3.1^†	+3.6	7.2^†	6.9^†	-0.4	70	N/A	N/A	17

^† = data older than this basket's freshness window · hover any figure for its as-of date · N/A = not reported. Freshness windows widen for less-timely baskets (Emerging Markets and Developing report on a longer lag). · Mkt Cap % GDP is the Buffett Indicator (market value of listed companies vs GDP); green = cheaper, red = richer valuations. Source: World Bank (annual).

🇺🇸 Yield Spread 10y–2y	+0.46%
🇺🇸 Yield Spread 10y–3m	+1.07%
🇺🇸 Inversion Signal	🟢 NO (0 months)
🇺🇸 Recession Probability	18.2%
🇺🇸 Inflation Regime	Normal (z=0.42)
🌍 Global Growth Pulse	3.1%
🇺🇸 Risk Score	-0.06 (Risk-Off)

📊 HY Credit Spread	3 bps
📉 Real 10y Rate	+1.40%
🏦 Fed Funds Rate	3.75%
👷 Unemployment Rate	4.2%
💰 M2 YoY Growth	+5.7%
📈 CPI YoY	3.4%

🐘 Buffett Indicator (Corp Equities / GDP)	255% 100th pctile · as of 2026-04-01
📐 Shiller CAPE (PE10)	41.4 99th pctile · as of 2026-10-02