🏈 TrevMon's CFB Power Rankings

Composite z-score across all efficiency, talent, and ratings metrics. Higher = stronger team overall.

XGBoost-predicted point margin vs. an average FBS opponent on a neutral field. Positive = favored.

Rolling strength estimate updated after each game based on win/loss and margin relative to expectation. Roughly centered at 1500 for an average FBS team.

247Sports Composite recruiting rating aggregated over recent classes. Reflects roster quality ceiling independent of coaching or scheme.

Opponent-adjusted, tempo-free efficiency rating. Splits into offense (higher = better) and defense (lower = better). Designed to be predictive, not descriptive.

Fremeau Efficiency Index — scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team would expect against an average opponent on a neutral field. Accounts for field position and game situation.

Simple Rating System — margin of victory adjusted for strength of schedule. Iteratively solved so a team's rating equals its average margin adjusted for opponent quality.

Football Power Index — ESPN's predictive power index combining efficiency stats, recruiting, and injuries to forecast future game outcomes.

Average Expected Points Added per play across all play types. Measures how much value each play generates relative to the expected points from that down-distance-field position.

Average EPA per rushing play. Positive values mean the run game consistently gains more than expected; negative means it loses value on the ground.

Average EPA per passing play (including sacks). The pass game typically drives EPA more than the run game — elite offenses often exceed +0.3.

Success Rate — % of plays considered "successful": gaining ≥50% of yards needed on 1st down, ≥70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th. A consistency metric independent of big plays.

Overall % of prior-season PPA (Expected Points Added) returning. Captures how much of a team's total production is back — offense and defense combined.

% of prior-season QB PPA returning. The single highest-leverage returning production signal — a returning starter QB is worth ~3–4 pts/game vs. a new starter.

% of WR/TE/RB/FB PPA returning. Measures skill position continuity — important for QB-receiver timing and run game familiarity.

% of defensive line and defensive back PPA returning. DL% tracks pass rush continuity; DB% tracks coverage continuity. Both are strong early-season predictors.

Offensive sack rate — sacks allowed as a % of total pass dropbacks. Lower is better. Elite OLs are typically below 4%; poor pass protection exceeds 7%.

Sack rate split by down type. Standard downs (1st, 2nd-and-short, 3rd-and-short) vs. passing downs (2nd-and-8+, 3rd-and-5+). Passing down sack rate is a strong OL quality signal.

Football Outsiders Line Yards split by down type. The FO formula credits OL for the first 4 yards of a carry (100%), yards 5–10 (50%), and discounts beyond 10 (0%). Split by standard vs. passing downs isolates OL performance in expected-run vs. expected-pass situations.

Pro Football Focus overall offensive and defensive team grades on a 0–100 scale. Grades above 70 are above average; above 80 is elite; below 50 is poor.

PFF pass blocking grade (OL protecting the QB) and pass rush grade (DL/EDGE disrupting the QB). The two most predictive PFF unit grades for game outcomes.

PFF coverage grade — how well the secondary limits separation and yards after catch. Displayed only when PFF data has been uploaded for the current season.